Radyvylivmoloko brief market review.
Trends in the dairy market in Ukraine.
Dairy season in Ukraine approaches its maximum. But in the first quarter of 2019, milk
processing decreased by 5% compared with 2018. The production of most dairy products in Ukraine has decreased. The analogue cheese production (for RF), which formed the balance of fat and protein in Ukraine, decreased by a third. Butter production decreased by 18%.
Raw milk - trends
The price of raw milk continues to decline in April. This dynamics is mainly due to an
increase in the raw milk amount. Over the past 4 months, milk from farms has fallen in
price by 4%. If the price is taken in euros and compared with neighboring countries, then we get the following result: in Poland, for the same period, the price decreased by 3%, in Lithuania by 5%, and in Ukraine, due to the hryvnia exchange rate, the price remained at the same level.
At the end of April, there seems to be an increase in export demand for Ukrainian butter.
In Ukraine there is a tendency to decrease the production of butter. In the first quarter of 2019, production decreased by 18% compared to last year.
Ukrainian butter with a fat content of 82% was sold on average 3900-4100 USD per ton.
Ukrainian butter with a fat content of 72.5% was sold on average 3600-3750 USD per ton.
In Ukraine, the real casein season began. The raw milk quantity from private sector
increases but the export price does not decrease. In the first quarter of 2019, casein was produced at 5% higher level than in 2018. Ukrainian casein was sold on average 5700-6000 USD per ton.
Our production in April:
Our forecast for May
In May, the start of hot weather is expected. Accordingly, the raw milk amount will
increase, mainly from the private sector. In general, the raw milk from the private sector in Ukraine is decreasing. In the first quarter of 2019, this quantity decreased by 20.7% compared with 2018. This is a cheaper raw material, which will mainly be used for casein.
The butter price will not decrease in May. The proposal for casein will increase, Ukrainian producers will try to sell casein no less than 6000 USD per ton. Prices for casein and butter will not drop mainly due to small stocks of these products in warehouses. Despite the end of the Easter fast, there is no expected increase in the domestic consumption of dairy products in Ukraine.
This information booklet is intended only for customers and partners of Radyvylivmoloko LLC. Not for public or commercial use. All the information, mentioned here should be considered only as and opinion of Radyvylivmoloko staff.
Exchange rate change, 1,6%
Fluctuation rate, 3,1%