May 2019

General Information

Summer begins. The offer of cheap raw milk from the private sector is much smaller than in previous years. Farms  understand it well and are in no hurry to lower the price. As a result, this year the average price is 11% higher than the last year. Ukrainian export prices are not growing much due to high milk season and worldwide prices.

Raw milk - trends

The raw milk market has reached its minimum price. The raw milk offer did not increase in May. In April, the raw milk production decreased by 3%: -3.5% from the private sector and -1.5% from farms. This is roughly 700 tons of raw milk decrease per day. This decrease is not making significant impact on the market since it goes along with analog cheese production decrease (towards RF).

Butter

In the end of May, we see decrease in butter sales compared to the end of April. Traders are in no hurry to buy butter even at 4000 USD per ton. In general, this is not surprising, because EU prices are declared at 4100 USD level. In the near future, the butter price will be influenced by three factors: global market, hryvnia exchange rate and casein producers, which, given the high casein price, may agree to sell butter at a lower price.

Casein

The casein market in 2019 shows a rapid price dynamics. Since the beginning of the year, Ukrainian casein price has risen by almost 25%. 6500 USD per ton looks like the highest price so far. This is a record price for the last 5 years. But taking into account the reduction of raw milk from the private sector, casein production in April decreased by 23% compared to 2018.
Our production  in May: Butter 174 Casein 85 Cheese 79

Our forecast for June

In June, the raw milk quantity and price is expected at the same level as in May. Raw milk intake will decrease due to warmer weather in Ukraine. If the butter price in the EU increases, this will directly affect the price of Ukrainian butter. Taking into account prices and seasonality, casein production in June may double. The consumption of fresh dairy products in the domestic market will decrease seasonally.

Brief May (pdf)

This information booklet is intended only for customers and partners of Radyvylivmoloko LLC. Not for public or commercial use. All the information, mentioned here should be considered only as and opinion of Radyvylivmoloko staff.

Exchange rate
Exchange rate change, 0,9 %
Fluctuation rate, 3,06 %