September 2018

General Information

The “big milk” season is over. The raw milk price should rise. Export prices remained at the same level. The consumption of dairy products on the domestic market had to rise, but remained at low level.

Raw milk - trends

The raw milk amount has decreased due to seasonality. The raw milk price increased in September. But the hryvnia devalued even more, so the price in US dollars remained at the same level. The average price from farms in August was 0.32 USD per kg.

Butter

Trends in the butter market are not favorable for Ukrainian producers. In September, the price fell again. In the summer, this was mainly influenced by the Belarusian market. But now the main reason is falling prices in Europe and New Zealand. Butter with a fat content of 72.5% is exported for 3400-3600 USD per ton. Butter with a fat content of 82% is sold on average 3800-4100 USD per ton.

Casein

Casein production has already begun to decline. In September, about 700 tons of casein were produced in Ukraine. The main factor is the reduction in the amount of
cheap raw milk. The price for casein was close to 5100-5400 USD per ton. If the price does not increase, production will be reduced even more.

Our production
in September
Butter
118
Casein
72
Cheese
36

Our forecast for October

In October, the raw milk volume is expected to decrease. The raw milk price will increase, but slightly, 2-3%. The consumption of fresh dairy products in Ukraine will seasonally increase, especially fresh milk. Casein production will decrease seasonally. Many producers will stop the production due to raw milk shortage. In the butter market, buyers expect the lowest price for start purchasing. But rising prices can be very sharp as the butter production is much less than in the summer.

Brief September (pdf)

This information booklet is intended only for customers and partners of Radyvylivmoloko LLC. Not for public or commercial use. All the information, mentioned here should be considered only as and opinion of Radyvylivmoloko staff.

Exchange rate
Exchange rate change, 0,7 %
Fluctuation rate, 1,4 %