Radyvylivmoloko brief market review.
Trends in the dairy market in Ukraine.
Through weather conditions, the raw milk amount is actively falling. Therefore, raw milk producers raise prices. Fresh dairy producers, in order to save raw milk intake will play the major role in price increase. It looks like local sales are more profitable compared to export.
Raw milk - trends
There is a shortage in raw milk in Ukraine. Around 25% less milk was collected in the first half of a year, compared to the same period in 2018. The low export prices of dairy commodities forced the operators, focused on foreign sales, to fight for cheap raw milk from population. The raw milk amount, unfortunately, is not growing. Official data of agricultural enterprises on the volume of raw milk sales confirm the negative dynamics - for five months, the farm raw milk supply decreased by 3% over the same period last year.
An unusual situation is observed in the butter market. World prices are falling or stabilizing. Respectively, export prices are not high. But at the same time, the price of goods in the domestic market has noticeably increased. Butter (82%) in the domestic market has risen in price to 4300 USD per ton. International traders are offering not more than 3900 USD per ton. It turns out that the current domestic price does not stimulate export.
Despite the trends of the world market to a significant increase in prices for casein, the price of Ukrainian goods in June did not increase much. Importers try to buy Ukrainian technical casein mainly at 6200-6300 USD per ton. Casein production is falling this year. Even last month, when prices rose rapidly, it was not possible to produce more than a thousand tons per month of goods.
Our production in June:
Our forecast for July
There will be a deficit on raw milk market. Farmers will be able to raise the price of raw materials in July. Russia allows the transit of goods. This applies above all to the export price for Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Ukrainian producers will not rush to sell butter for export, it will be more profitable to sell it on the domestic market. The price for casein will rise, roughly 6500 USD per ton, otherwise it will be more profitable to sell skimmed milk locally.
This information booklet is intended only for customers and partners of Radyvylivmoloko LLC. Not for public or commercial use. All the information, mentioned here should be considered only as and opinion of Radyvylivmoloko staff.
Exchange rate change, 3,6 %
Fluctuation rate, 3,8 %